SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET ACTIVITY IS COMPLETELY RANDOM, WITH NO BASIS IN REAL VALUATION, AND ATTEMPTING TO TIME IT WITH PERIODIC BUYING AND SELLING WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR PORTFOLIO!
There is a consensus among most financial professionals that long-term stock market trends do exist and economists analyze and report the cyclical nature of business cycles with long-term expansions and usually short-term contractions.
The question becomes, if you use business cycle data and economic indicators to enter or exit the stock market, knowing a long-term expansion is ending/beginning, or a short-term contraction is beginning/ending, is that Stock Market Timing? Is Stock Market price activity driving the buy/sell activity or is it something different?
There are numerous stock market timing strategies available to investors, both free and fee based. On such free service is called Successful Investment and is located at www.theetfbully.com. It contains a newsletter, blog, charts, a proprietary tracking system, and, of course, a personal investment management service. To a general Investor, it not only makes sense, but very logical. However, what are the real long-term results of such a strategy? The general premise for exiting the stock market is to sell anytime there has been a 7% drop in stock market. The reentry point is less apparent and often vague.
The following blue links are some narratives and a comparison of the results of LTTA versus Successful Investment over the current business cycle expansion.
Stock Market Timing vs LTTA_Notes
Stock Market Timing vs LTTA_Results(2017)
BUT AND HOLD ACTUALLY BEAT “THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT STRATEGY”…..WHY…..OVER THE LONG PERIOD OF A BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSION (YEARS), AN INVESTOR MUST ALWAYS STAY INVESTED THROUGHOUT THE EXPANSION AND AVOID STOCK MARKET TIMING!